In early January, the Cato Institute, a prominent libertarian public policy research organization, published a report confirming what many already knew: American factory workers are getting the short end of President Trump’s trade-war stick. This was noteworthy news, as the Cato Institute advocates for individual liberty, limited government, and the power of free markets.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, American manufacturers have shed jobs every month since May 2025, exactly one month after the White House’s “Liberation Day” debacle. The grand total? A loss of 72,000 US manufacturing jobs – and growing. Contrary to what the White House pledged, the stats indicate that the promised “American manufacturing renaissance” has yet to occur. As my fellow equipment manufacturing executives will tell you, producers can adjust to permanent, uniform and one-time increases in tariffs. We can plan accordingly by reshoring production, auditing vendors, and timing imports/exports to minimize costs. The reality? Manufacturers around the globe are experiencing a mishmash of opaque import taxes enacted by the executive branch of the American government.
Since “Liberation Day,” the US Federal Tariff Code has been amended at least 50 times within six months. At least 22% of those amended tariffs have been modified twice more since. It’s no shock that global producers have scaled back hiring, capital expenditures, inventory investments, and sales plans for further international expansion. How can a manufacturer budget for a new facility if it cannot even forecast the impact on costs of goods sold (COGS)?
Cautious optimism
So, how is the industry responding and, more importantly, what can it do? Simply put: many foodservice equipment manufacturers are standing pat. Market segments such as QSR chains and high-end hospitality operators around the globe continue to expand, thanks in part to increased demand for convenience and comfort driven by equity markets showing no signs of slowing down. Consumers aren’t cancelling summer holidays; they’re simply increasing budgets. Fast food restaurants aren’t limiting menu options; they’re bringing back “dollar menu deals.”
Many FCSI members and equipment distributors I spoke with are cautiously optimistic about the year ahead: the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, Men’s T20 World Cup cricket, and the World Baseball Classic will drive tourism – but will those same holidaymakers travel to the US for America’s 250th Anniversary celebrations in July? Current geopolitical tensions aren’t helping the hospitality sector.
Will smart manufacturing and AI save the foodservice equipment industry from further reductions? Perhaps.
But humanoid robots remain cost-prohibitive (and ineffective) for manufacturing griddles or producing pizza. And those flashy AI-enabled fast food touchscreen kiosks? They’re designed to upsell not increase order efficiency. But there’s an upside to everything: increased regional economic activity (i.e. demand for data centers and increased European tourism) coupled with powerful policy incentives (America’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act), affordable gas prices, and the de-escalation of global tensions have the potential to keep commodity prices in check (especially nickel, the backbone of corrosionresistant stainless steel). Because stability, after all, might be the perfect ingredient our industry – and the world – needs.
The Mystery Manufacturer
