I recently came across figures showing that the global coffee shop market is expected to keep growing steadily in the coming years, driven by urbanization, increasing consumption, and a continued appetite for more premium café experiences. On paper, it is a success story. In practice, however, one might reasonably ask: how much room is there left? After all, while the market is growing, so is the number of coffee shops. And in many cities, it is hard to escape the feeling that we are not just seeing growth, but saturation.
Part of that saturation is structural. Large chains have expanded aggressively over the past decades, securing prime locations and building recognizable brands. Some of them, one could argue, have stretched themselves thin in the process, relying on scale and visibility rather than distinctiveness. As discussed in last month’s column, scale is no longer automatically aspirational. Consumers increasingly look for places that feel specific, local, and real.
At the same time, the independent side of the market is not without its own problems. In many urban areas, a walk down the street reveals a striking sameness: clean interiors, minimalist design, carefully curated playlists (but weirdly bad sound), and a menu built around the same selection of specialty coffees (or, God help me, matcha). What once felt fresh and distinctive has, through repetition, become its own kind of formula. Trends, by definition, are temporary. And when too many operators build their concept around a trend, they risk ageing all at once.
There is also a question of context. Aesthetic minimalism and stripped-back spaces may photograph well, but they do not always translate into comfort or relevance. A café is not just a visual concept; it is a place people inhabit. In colder climates, for instance, warmth, texture, and a sense of shelter matter. A space that feels at home in Los Angeles or Melbourne may feel out of place on a gray afternoon in the Netherlands. So why do they all look the same?
Specificity over replication
None of this means there is no room left. On the contrary, there always is, but the space that remains is not for more of the same. It is for places that understand where they are, who they are for, and what they want to be over time. In other words: timelessness over trend, and specificity over replication.
Chains, meanwhile, are facing a different kind of opportunity. While some have leaned toward premiumization, there is also a growing opportunity at the other end of the market. As prices across the industry have risen, a segment of consumers is once again looking for speed, clarity, and affordability. The rapid rise of Chinese coffee chains such as Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, and their gradual expansion into European markets, is a telling example. These concepts are not trying to imitate the independent café experience; instead, they double down on efficiency, automation, and a sharply defined value proposition. In doing so, they respond to a different, but equally real, consumer need – one that much of the current market seems to have priced out.
If anything, the current coffee landscape illustrates a broader pattern in hospitality. Growth does not necessarily lead to diversity. In fact, it can produce the opposite: a crowded field of increasingly similar options.
The question, then, is not whether there are too many coffee shops. It is whether there are enough that offer something meaningfully different.
Marius Zürcher
About the author:
The co-owner & founder of Millennial & Gen Z marketing and employer branding agency 1520 in Apeldoorn, the Netherlands, Marius Zürcher was a participant at FCSI’s ‘Millennials’ focused roundtable at INTERGASTRA and a speaker at FCSI workshops about industry trends.
